The California Urban Futures Model is known as the CUF Model or CUF-1 (earlier versions of the model were known as the Bay Area Simulation System [BASS II]). The purpose of the CUF-1 model is to provide a framework for simulating how growth and development policies might alter the location, pattern, and intensity of urban development. The model is designed to consider growth and development policies at various levels of government (e.g., state government, local government, and special districts). The model was originally developed to simulate the impacts of alternative regulatory and investment policy initiatives on urban development in the Northern California Bay Region.
Note: CUF-1 has been superceded by CUF-2 and CURBA.
The CUF-1 model allows the user to:
ï Project population growth at a sub-area level (e.g., a city) and then aggregate projected growth to larger units (e.g., a county),
* Allocate growth to individual sites based on development profitability,
* Incorporate several variables, including spatial accessibility, to determine the location and density of new development,
* Assemble, organize, manage, and display data describing land development options with geographic information systems (GIS),
* Incorporate development policies into the growth forecasting process, and,
* Simulate new policy scenarios quickly and display results in easy to understand map forms with various levels of detail.
The CUF-1 model uses two primary units of analysis, political jurisdictions (incorporated cities or counties) and developable land units (i.e., undeveloped or underdeveloped areas that may be developed or redeveloped [DLUs]). First, the model projects population growth based on city population growth trends and development potential by DLU. The CUF-1 model then simulates growth of an area by determining how much new development to allocate to each DLU per model period based on population growth of each city or county, the profitability potential of each DLU if developed, and user-specified development regulations and/or incentives. This is accomplished using four related submodels: the bottom-up population growth submodel, a spatial database, the spatial allocation submodel, and the annexation-incorporation submodel.
General Info
Developers:
John Landis, Ted Bradshaw, Ted Egan, Peter Hall, Ayse Pamuk, David Simpson, Qing Shen, Michael Teitz, and Ming Zhao.
Website:
www.dcrp.ced.berkeley.edu
Email:
jlandis@uclink.berkeley.edu
Strengths:
ï Easy to use and visual: The CUF-1 model allows users to prepare and evaluate alternative policy scenarios quickly (a typical simulation can be completed in a matter of hours) and in easy to read map form at almost any level of detail.
ï Expandable: The CUF-1 model is designed as a modular system of related but independent submodels that can be updated to include new information and theories.
ï Policy approach: The CUF-1 model simulates alternative development futures based on specific policy changes.
Outputs:
The land-use categories addressed by CUF-1 are user defined and, therefore, could include any land-use category as appropriate for the study area. Four major land-use categories were used for the CUF-1 San Francisco Bay and Sacramento areas simulation: agricultural land type, general plan use category, current land use, and wetlands.
Resources
User Input Requirements:
Model requires the following user input:
ï Multiple ArcInfo coverages or themes profiling existing land use, general plan, and environmental characteristics, as well as jurisdictional boundaries.
ï Jurisdiction-level tabular information profiling historical population growth.
Equipment Needs:
CUF-1 requires a UNIX-based workstation with a UNIX operating system, programming language compilers, and SPSS statistical analysis software.
Limitations:
ï A second generation of the CUF model ("CUF-2") has been developed to address several of the limitations discovered in the original CUF-1 model.
ï Availability: The CUF-1 model is currently unavailable as a product that can be purchased "off the shelf.
ï Singular land use: The CUF-1 model is limited to residential development and does not include methods for projecting and/or allocating future industrial, commercial, and public activities. Therefore, sites that are the most profitable to develop are reserved for residential development (unless explicitly prohibited).
ï Lack of "infill" development and urban redevelopment: The CUF-1 model assumes that almost all population growth will occur at the urban edge.
ï Growth allocation primarily depends calculated on development profitability: The CUF-1 model may be insensitive to other factors that impact growth patterns and locations (e.g., impacts of new infrastructure investments).
ï Lack of integration of historical experiences: The CUF-1 model's rules for allocating future development were not calibrated against historical experience.
Staff Requirements:
Installation and calibration of the model requires experience in SPSS and ArcInfo as well as land-use modeling expertise. Use of the model requires land-use expertise and general computer experience.
Software Cost:
Not available for ìoff the shelfî purchase. Contact the model developer.Potential users must contact the model developer.
