The purpose of the California Urban Futures Model Second Generation (CUF-2) model, like the CUF-1 model, is to provide a framework for simulating how growth and development policies might alter the location, pattern, and intensity of urban development. (See the evaluation of the CUF-1 model for a more detailed description of the model's intended use.) The second-generation was developed to address some of the theoretical holes of the first model.
The CUF-2 model performs many of the functions as the CUF-1 model (see the evaluation of the CUF-1 model). Several changes were made to the first generation, however. The following provides a brief description of each of the four main components of the CUF-2 model:
* The activity projection component uses a series of econometric models to project future population, households, and employment by jurisdiction at 10-year intervals. Although the future population and households are projected as they are in the CUF-1 model, the employment projection is a new component of CUF-2.
* The GIS based spatial database generates and updates the location and attributes of each developable land unit (DLU) and allows the user to visually display the spatial pattern of growth. In CUF-2, DLUs are one-hectare grid-cells, not (as in CUF-1) irregularly-shaped polygons.
* The land use change submodel is calibrated against historical urban land use changes Independent variables include: local population and employment growth; proximity to regional job centers; site slope; whether the site is within or beyond city boundaries or spheres of influence; the uses of surrounding sites; the availability of vacant land; site proximity to freeway interchanges and transit stations; and site proximity to major commercial, industrial, and public land uses.
* The model allows for spatial bidding for sites between four types of new development land uses and three types of redevelopment and use change submodel is calibrated against historical urban land use changes.