The DELTA model projects changes in urban areas, including changes in the location of households, population, employment and the amount of real estate development. Typically DELTA is set up to interact with a transport model. With a transport model, DELTA projects changes in land use that affect the demand for transportation and the impact of changes in accessibility on a variety of factors, including the location of different activities (e.g., households, employment) and the value of buildings. An optional regional level can be added within DELTA to model the regional economy and migration between urban areas.
General Info
Developers:
David Simmonds Consultancy
Website:
www.davidsimmonds.com/main/models/models1a.htm
Email:
dsc@davidsimmonds.com
Strengths:
ï The DELTA model can forecast changes over a series of short periods. This allows the user to prepare and evaluate future planning and development.
ï The DELTA model allows the user to incorporate information to generate specific conditions into the model.
ï The DELTA model provides an integrated software package that can be used as a stand alone package or could be set up to interact with a wide range of transport models.
Outputs:
The outputs provided by DELTA are the same type of data used to run the model (i.e., forecasts of numbers of households by type and location, jobs by sector and location, floorspace by category and location, etc.), although the data are updated as a result of running the model. DELTA is capable of producing output files that can be passed through Windows-based tools. The outputs should be loaded into a spreadsheet, database, and/or mapping software for analysis.
Resources
User Input Requirements:
DELTA was designed to be flexible to meet the needs of the user; therefore, it does not have rigid input requirements. The inputs required to operate the model are user defined, allowing the user to alter the inputs for each run of the model. DELTA is both an urban and a regional model. The DELTA urban model contains six sub-models that address the development process, demographic change (e.g., household formation) and economic growth, location and relocation of households and jobs in the property market, car-ownership choices, changes in employment status (working/non-working) and commuting patterns, and changes in the quality of residential areas. The DELTA regional model contains an additional three models for migration between different urban areas, the location of investment/disinvestment, and the pattern of production and trade.
The inputs to the DELTA urban and/or regional models include fixed-format ASCII files containing information on the location of households and jobs, car ownership levels, and floorspace supply and rent for a base year and pre-base years. In addition, the user should provide variables that define the economic and demographic scenarios to be modeled and coefficients to describe the behavior of households, businesses, developers, etc. (e.g., sensitivity of developers' location decisions to expected profitability, sensitivity of households' location decisions to rent, the quality of residential areas, etc.).
Time Commitment:
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Data Input Requirements:
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Equipment Needs:
DELTA runs on Pentium IV PCs. The existing version runs under MS DOS under Windows 95, 98 or XP. The model developer also recommends the use of spreadsheets, databases, and geographic information system (e.g., MapInfo) to prepare the data needed to run the model and to analyze the data obtained from the model. A color monitor is recommended.
Limitations:
The DELTA model currently is unavailable as an off-the-shelf product. Licensing for this model is on a project specific basis, and include the services of the model developer
Staff Requirements:
The consulting services of the model developer are required to use DELTA.
Software Cost:
DELTA software currently is not available for purchase off-the-shelf as a self-contained software package. It is included as a component of overall consulting services provided by the model developer. The price of overall consulting services is set on a project-by-project basis depending on several factors, including the needs of the client, the size of the study area, and the amount and condition of the data available for incorporation into the system.
Preview:
Not available.
Maintenance Costs:
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