Development of the Land Transformation Model (LTM) began in 1995 and is ongoing. The model uses landscape ecology principles, patterns of interactions to simulate land use change process, to forecast land use change. Though the model can be used in any definable region, precedence is given to watersheds as the spatial extent in LTM applications. Conceptually, the LTM contains six interacting modules: 1) policy framework; 2) driving variables; 3) land transformation; 4) intensity of use; 5) processes and distributions; and 6) assessment endpoints. The pilot model was developed for Michigan's Saginaw Bay Watershed and contains two of the six LTM modules; driving variables and land transformation. The pilot model integrates a variety of land use change driving variables, such as population growth, agricultural sustainability, transportation, and farmland preservation policies for the watershed.
Land Transformation Model (LTM)
Submitted by admin on Mon, 06/04/2007 - 3:11pm.
Developers:
Dr. Bryan C. Pijanowski
Website:
www.ltm.msu.edu
Email:
pijanows@msu.edu
Strengths:
• GIS outputs provide stakeholders and resource managers with easy to understand results.
• Allows users to explore various types of inputs that are parameterized using a GIS.
• Coupled to a neural network software package that learns how historical changes in use are driven by various social, political and environmental factors.
Outputs:
Output of the LTM includes a time series of projected land uses in the watershed at user specified time steps.
User Input Requirements:
To operate the model, a community must have a GIS data base that contains basic land use information. At a minimum, the following input data are needed:
Time Commitment:
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Data Input Requirements:
ArcInfo GRID Data:
• Elevation
• Public lands
• Population
• Per capita use requirements
ArcInfo Iines or polygons: Surface water (rivers, lakes, etc.),Previous land use<BR>ArcInfo lines: Roads, highways, streets.
Equipment Needs:
LTM requires a 300 MHz or higher PC or Sun Sparc with a minimum of 256 MB RAM, Windows NT or Sun Solaris operating system, a color monitor with a minimum resolution of 1024 x 768 and a color printer. Spreadsheet (Excel), database (MS Access), statistical (S-Plus and SAS), programming language compiler ('C'), GIS (ArcView or ArcInfo), and Stuttgart Neural Network Simulator (SNNS) software are necessary for data management.
Limitations:
• The "drivers" are not dynamic; projective ability is around 35% for 100m x 100m cell size.
• Takes several large C programs to couple the GIS and neural network simulation software.
• Environmental process models that are being used require large amounts of memory (around 2 GB of RAM for a 5- to 7-county area.
• The model requires training and experience to run. It is not a commercial off-the-shelf product. It was developed to be used by a researcher working with resource managers.
Staff Requirements:
Calibration and use of the model requires expertise in land-use modeling and "C" language programming as well as SNNS neural network batch files.
Software Cost:
Contact the model developer. It is likely that there will be no associated costs to obtain the model and its associated routines.
Preview:
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Maintenance Costs:
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